Batting Outcome Explorer

Five ways to explore how ball-strike counts shape batting outcomes across 555,995 MLB plate appearances from 2022–2024 Statcast data.

Outcomes Explorer

Browse every count by batter and pitcher handedness. See how the mix of hits, walks, and outs shifts as the count evolves — click any count for a full outcome breakdown.

Platoon Advantage

Tests whether batters outperform against opposite-handed pitchers — the classic platoon split. Confirmed in 11 of 12 counts, with the biggest edge in high-pressure counts (3-0, 3-2, 0-2).

Count Flow

An alluvial diagram connecting each count to its outcomes by raw volume. See at a glance which counts produce the most walks, which produce the most strikeouts, and how outcome mix varies by depth in the count.

Simulator

Build a count pitch-by-pitch and watch outcome probabilities update live. See how each ball and strike shifts the most likely result for any batter-pitcher matchup.

Count Paths

A Sankey diagram tracing how at-bats flow through every count from 0-0 to the final pitch. Green flows are balls, red are strikes — see where PAs funnel and which counts are most frequently visited.

Hypothesis: batters have a meaningful OBP advantage when facing a pitcher of the opposite hand — the classic platoon split.
Comparing opposite-handedness matchups (RHB vs LHP & LHB vs RHP) against same-handedness (RHB vs RHP & LHB vs LHP) using OBP (hits + walks) across 555,995 plate appearances, 2022–2024.

Click a count to inspect by outcome

Largely confirmed — but count-dependent and smaller than conventional wisdom suggests.

The advantage holds in 11 of 12 counts, but the effect size varies significantly. The biggest edges appear at 3-0 (+1.7 pts), 3-2 (+1.4 pts), and 0-2 (+1.2 pts) — the counts where pitchers are most forced into predictable behavior (must throw a strike, or trying to expand the zone). In neutral counts like 1-1 and 2-1, where pitchers have more flexibility, the advantage nearly disappears. This pattern points to pitcher behavior under pressure as the driver, more than batter ability to read spin.

Select a count to compare outcomes

Each flow connects a ball-strike count (left) to a plate appearance outcome (right). Width is proportional to raw PA volume, pooled across all batter and pitcher handedness combinations. Hover a count or outcome node to highlight its flows; hover a flow for details.

How at-bats travel through the count. Each node is a ball-strike count; each edge is a pitch — green = ball, red = strike. Node size reflects estimated PA visits. Node color reflects count advantage: blue = batter-ahead, gray = even, red = pitcher-ahead. Hover any node or edge for details.

Ball (count advances)

Strike (count advances)

3-0 (B+3)

B+2

B+1

Even

S+1

0-2 (S+2)

Flow volumes are estimated from final-count PA distributions using forward propagation. Exact pitch-by-pitch transitions require play-level data not in this dataset.

Pick a matchup, then add balls and strikes pitch by pitch. Outcome probabilities update live — the most likely result is highlighted.

Matchup

Count

Balls

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Strikes

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